NRF Forecasts 2025 Retail Sales Growth of 2.7% to 3.7%

NRF Predicts Slower Yet Stable Consumer Spending Environment

The 2025 Retail Sales Forecast from the National Retail Federation shows steady growth, despite softening consumer confidence and economic uncertainty.

Economic Conditions Still Favor Retail Growth

Retail sales in 2025 are projected to grow between 2.7% and 3.7%, excluding auto, gas, and restaurant purchases. This follows a 3.6% rise in 2024.

Strong employment and steady wages support spending, while easing inflation boosts short-term confidence. However, challenges still cloud the outlook.

Job Growth and Inflation Trends Impact Confidence

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted slower job growth may weigh on household spending later this year. Policy uncertainty adds more strain.

He said the U.S. GDP could fall below 2%, while consumer spending may dip to just over 2% from 2.8% in 2024.

Savings Depletion Leaves Households Vulnerable

Catherine Cullen of NRF stated that pandemic-era savings have mostly vanished. Now, consumers face more pressure during economic disruptions.

Inflation and tariffs continue to reduce spending power, particularly among lower-income families who have seen weaker wage growth recently.

Online Sales to Outpace In-Store Growth

Non-store and ecommerce sales are expected to rise 7% to 9% in 2025, topping 2024’s 8.1% growth rate.

Total retail sales could reach $5.42–$5.48 trillion, with online sales accounting for up to $1.6 trillion this year.

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