Mastering the Art of Seafood Forecasting

Accurately predicting seafood demand is essential for retailers to maintain optimal inventory levels, minimize out-of-stocks, and reduce waste. Mastering the art of seafood forecasting involves leveraging the right tools and systems tailored to various seafood categories—whether fresh or frozen—and understanding the complexities of managing different species.

“Correctly forecasting shopper activity is critical to increasing sales and profits,” says Chuck Anderson, vice president of sales and operations at Certified Quality Foods. He emphasizes that forecasting is crucial for keeping seafood fresh, maintaining profitability, and driving sales. To achieve precise ordering, operators need systems that keep track of stock, sales, and costs in real-time.

While some large retailers use vendor-managed inventory systems for self-service seafood, Anderson notes that these systems aren’t suitable for every store, particularly those handling fresh wild-caught products. The lack of insights into the quality of incoming seafood is a major drawback. To combat this, retailers need accurate historical data—tracking daily, weekly, and seasonal trends is essential to prevent stocking inferior products and minimizing shrinkage.

Forecasting becomes even more challenging due to fluctuating consumer demand, which varies based on the time of day, weather, and seasonal events. Warmer weather typically drives demand for grilling products, while colder months like January see an uptick in healthier seafood choices like fresh fish. Holidays, including Lent and Christmas Eve, create spikes in seafood purchases, with ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat items like shrimp and party trays in high demand.

Each retail location requires its own customized forecasting system, taking into account shopper demographics, sales trends, and promotions. Promotions, in particular, can have a significant impact. A sale on salmon fillets, for example, might boost salmon sales but reduce demand for other seafood varieties like tilapia. Tracking these trends accurately is crucial to avoid cannibalizing sales of other products.

Operators must also factor in seafood events and promotions when forecasting. Historical data on sales and shrinkage during similar events helps retailers plan more effectively for future promotions. Additionally, having trained seafood managers who are skilled in forecasting and equipped with detailed ordering guides is key to managing inventory efficiently.

Beyond predicting shopper demand, Anderson highlights the importance of knowing the quality of seafood on hand, especially for short shelf-life wild-caught varieties. Quality often fluctuates, and stores need to adjust inventory levels based on the freshness and size of the products they receive. This can mean selling through stock quickly when the quality is high or struggling to move it when it’s not.

Finally, adopting an everyday low-price strategy for most fresh seafood can help retailers manage shrinkage and create consistency. “If quality and prices remain stable, seafood managers can establish a rhythm for ordering and selling through stock daily,” Anderson adds.