Rising Sales Conceal Fluctuations in the Produce Market

Rising Sales Conceal Ongoing Produce Market Volatility

Why Strong Sales Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Produce departments report rising sales, but that doesn’t mean stability. In fact, produce market volatility continues to challenge fresh food retailers.

Retailers see growth due to promotions and healthier eating trends. However, behind those gains lie price pressures, competition, and shifting customer behavior.

Circana reported a 3.6% increase in produce volume sales for the 52 weeks ending March 23. Still, average prices remain high.

That same report shows fresh fruit sales up 4.7%, despite a nearly 1% price hike. Vegetable prices dipped slightly but still outpaced 2019 levels.

Growing Competition Pressures Pricing

Retailers Face New Challenges from All Channels

Jonna Parker from Circana explained that supermarkets now face heavy competition from mass retailers, dollar stores, and even online grocers.

With more outlets offering fresh produce, grocers struggle to stay competitive on pricing without cutting quality or profit.

At the same time, consumers still reel from inflation’s impact on grocery costs. NielsenIQ found that over half of U.S. shoppers remain deeply concerned about food prices.

This puts fresh produce in a tough spot. High prices lead some buyers to switch to frozen or shelf-stable alternatives.

Promotions Help, but Don’t Fix Everything

Retailers Must Adapt to New Buying Habits

Tom Barnes of Category Partners notes the increase in produce sales doesn’t mean full recovery. He sees it more as a correction than growth.

Consumers are slowly returning to pre-inflation shopping habits. Yet many still track promotions and wait for deals before buying.

Retailers that win shoppers during this transition tend to focus on education and transparency. Tactics like recipe ideas, tasting stations, and nutrition tips work well.

Chris Costagli of NielsenIQ also emphasized this. He advises offering omnichannel content that positions fresh produce as both valuable and healthy.

Local and Fresh Still Win

Value, Health, and Trust Drive Success

Marketing local produce and health-driven selections can give stores an edge. Consumers want items that serve specific wellness needs.

This is especially true among Gen Z shoppers. They prioritize mental clarity, digestion, and immunity—all benefits found in fruits and vegetables.

Retailers like Tops Friendly Markets have adapted well. They promote high-quality and local produce, run contests, and train staff for better merchandising.

Jeff Cady of Tops says cold chain maintenance, accurate ordering, and customer feedback are all vital to reducing shrink and boosting trust.

He adds that Tops offers seasonal price reductions to keep produce affordable, even as the market fluctuates.

Turning Volatility into Opportunity

Smart Merchandising Keeps Customers Coming Back

Retailers can’t ignore produce market volatility. But with the right strategy, they can use that instability as a reason to innovate.

Accurate data analysis, tailored promotions, and personalized outreach help stores meet shoppers’ needs in real time.

Tops even uses loyalty card data to time promotions and offer relevant product suggestions. The goal is to align with current consumer habits.

Shoppers still seek fresh food, and with the right mix of value and education, they’ll keep produce in their carts.

Explore more news on this website for deeper insights into retail trends and shopper strategies.