Tomato Price Increase Expected After U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement Expires

New Tariffs Threaten to Raise Costs for Consumers Nationwide

The expiration of a key U.S.-Mexico trade deal could spark a significant tomato price increase at grocery stores across the country. As tariffs on Mexican tomatoes take effect, retailers, farmers, and shoppers brace for financial impact.

This shift follows the end of the Tomato Suspension Agreement, which kept Mexican tomato prices above a certain threshold to protect American growers. Without this agreement, U.S. importers must now pay a 17% tariff on all tomatoes from Mexico.

Tomatoes from Mexico dominate the U.S. import market, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Now, price hikes are expected to ripple across supply chains, retail shelves, and households.

Tariffs Add Pressure to an Already Fragile Market

The USDA warns that tariffs will lead to higher prices and lower demand. Meanwhile, a study from Arizona State University found tomato prices could rise by as much as 50%. Consumers may see price tags climb well beyond the current $1.70 per pound.

Texas lawmakers have asked the U.S. Department of Commerce to extend the agreement for 90 more days. They fear job losses and economic decline without the protections in place. In fact, the Texas Senate Research Center predicts 32,000 job losses and $4.5 billion in damages if no new deal is reached.

U.S. Growers Push for Market Fairness

While retailers and consumers worry about cost, U.S. tomato farmers are also concerned about long-standing challenges. Robert Guenther from the Florida Tomato Exchange stated that five previous trade agreements failed to stop illegal dumping by Mexican growers.

Unfairly priced imports undercut U.S. farms and destabilize the domestic market. Now, with tariffs in place but no updated agreement, growers and importers both face uncertainty.

This tomato price increase could spark wider effects, including changes in restaurant pricing and school meal costs. As a result, food industry leaders continue to monitor the situation closely.

What Happens Next for Tomato Buyers?

It’s still unclear whether the U.S. government will extend or renegotiate the deal. However, if nothing changes, American shoppers may need to adjust their grocery budgets. Meanwhile, growers and importers alike prepare for tougher months ahead.

The coming weeks will determine the full impact on supply chains, pricing, and the future of tomato trade between the two nations.

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