US beef production in decline despite heavier cows

In the past three months, feeder cattle have remained in feedlots longer and gained more weight, resulting in heavier carcasses and slower production rates. This has helped mitigate the ongoing nationwide herd decline and temporarily shifted profits from beef to cattle.

As feed costs decrease and weather conditions improve, Brian Earnest, CoBank’s lead animal protein analyst, noted in the report that producers are beginning to see profits after months of high costs and low prices. The extended time in feedlots has raised cattle prices, discouraging meatpackers from increasing slaughter rates. Data shows packers were losing $79 per head at the end of June, while feeder operators profited $499 per head.

“As beef markets have softened, cattle prices have increased, reducing packer incentives and shortening kill schedules,” Earnest said in CoBank’s quarterly report. Dressed cattle — partially butchered cow carcasses — averaged 850 pounds per head from April to June, about 3% higher than the same period last year, and 10 pounds heavier compared to weights in the first quarter, according to CoBank.
Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 4.4% compared to 2023. This reduction has caused the prices of beef 50s and beef 90s trim — used for various fat-to-lean ratios of ground beef — to diverge.

If weights remain high and slaughter numbers stay low, Earnest expects the price spread to continue widening this year, leading to more expensive burgers.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture last month raised its 2025 beef production forecast, citing heavier carcass weights expected to continue into the early months of the year.