What Consumers Truly Feel About Grocery Inflation

Despite the buzz around food inflation, shoppers are sticking with familiar routines, according to the latest report, “U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends: Return to Routine,” from FMI – The Food Industry Association and The Hartman Group.

The report highlights that, even amid concerns about inflation, shoppers’ average weekly grocery spending has remained stable at around $163 over the past 18 months. A substantial 83% of consumers feel they have some control over their grocery expenses. Many are responding to higher prices by seeking deals, buying fewer items, opting for more frozen meats and seafood, purchasing fewer organic products, buying in bulk, and choosing store brands.

During a recent webinar on the report’s findings, Dr. Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University, provided context on inflation. He emphasized that while food inflation has moderated and is expected to decrease further by 2025, food prices are unlikely to return to previous levels due to ongoing economic factors such as trucking costs and wages. Volpe also debunked the myth of extreme food inflation, explaining that while sticker prices may not be falling, food is becoming relatively cheaper in real terms.

The report also addressed Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments on price gouging. Andy Harig, VP of tax, trade, sustainability, and policy development at FMI, criticized the conflation of price gouging with inflationary price increases, noting that food retailers’ profit margins are very slim at 1.6% for 2023.
Despite high levels of concern about retail food inflation—69% of shoppers express significant worry—consumers rate their primary store 8.0 out of 10 in terms of meeting their needs. FMI’s additional research indicates that grocery shopper sentiment remains positive, with a trust rating of 70 out of 100 and over half of shoppers having favorable feelings towards grocery shopping.

Steve Markenson, VP of research and insights at FMI, observed that trust in grocers remains notably high, with 90% of shoppers confident in grocers’ ability to provide safe food. Harig also pointed out that while shoppers face challenges, grocery shopping remains a cost-effective way to feed families.