Bakery Department Maintains Sales Momentum

The bakery department saw a strong sales performance in June, generating $3.1 billion in total sales, a 9.3% year-over-year increase in dollar sales, though unit volume declined by 3.4%. This growth was driven primarily by inflation and price increases, with bakery items experiencing growth in both fresh and aisle bakery categories.

Key Insights:

1. Aisle Bakery
   • Dollar sales grew by 11.7% while unit volume was down by 1.5%.
   • The growth was driven by items like cookies (28.4%), cakes (20.5%), muffins (16.8%), and bagels (15.4%).
   • Pies saw a significant decline, down 18.3% in dollar sales.
2. Fresh Bakery
   • Dollar sales grew by 6.1%, and while volume declined by 3%, products like bagels/bialys (22.5%), muffins (20.8%), and doughnuts (15.3%) saw notable increases.
   • Pies in fresh bakery also showed a decrease, falling 11.4% in sales.
3. Father’s Day Impact
   • The third week of June, which included Father’s Day, was the biggest sales week, with bakery generating $784 million. This highlighted the significant role of holidays and special events in boosting bakery sales, especially for perimeter bakery items.
4. Category Performance by Dollar Sales:
   • Top performers: Cookies, cakes, muffins, and doughnuts, with increases in sales ranging from 10.6% to 28.4% year over year.
   • Declines: Pies were the only category showing negative growth in both fresh and aisle bakery.

Trends and Opportunities:

• Inflation-driven Growth: Most of the growth in the bakery category came from inflation, meaning consumers are paying more for baked goods rather than increasing consumption significantly.
• Celebratory & Morning Items: Items like muffins, cookies, and doughnuts, which are often linked to holidays, celebrations, and morning routines, continue to see strong performance.
• Retailer Opportunities: Retailers can capitalize on the popularity of items like muffins, croissants, and cheesecakes—which offer a “coffee shop-like experience” at home—and restaurant-quality baked goods for consumers seeking affordable indulgence at home.

Overall, while unit sales were down slightly, the bakery department continued to show strong dollar growth, fueled by a combination of pricing, consumer celebrations, and category expansion, especially in the fresh bakery segment.