Grocery Bakery Sales Continue to Climb

Supermarkets across the U.S. are experiencing impressive sales growth in their bakery departments, according to the Food Industry Association’s Power of In-Store Bakery report. While dollar sales have surged, unit sales have remained steady, suggesting a shift toward higher-priced items and increased demand for indulgent treats.

Whitney Atkins, vice president of marketing for the International Dairy Deli Bakery Association (IDDBA), highlighted that both center store and perimeter aisle bakery items have seen significant growth. Bakery center store bread alone has surged by more than $1 billion in the past three years, and this trend is not showing signs of slowing down.

For the 52-week period ending in early December, perimeter bakery items accounted for $18.3 billion in sales, while center store bakery items contributed $25.1 billion. These figures mark a substantial increase from pre-COVID numbers, with perimeter bakery items rising from $13.9 billion in 2019 and center store bread from $18.6 billion.

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Jonna Parker, principal of fresh foods at Circana, attributes this growth to consumers seeking comfort items, especially bread, during times of inflation. “Center store bread is often used as a meal accompaniment or snack,” Parker said. “Both center store and perimeter bread serve important roles, complementing each other rather than competing.”

Arthur Ackles, director of perishable foods at Dave’s Fresh Marketplace, has noticed significant recovery in bakery sales post-COVID, particularly in scratch-baked goods. He emphasized that high-quality ingredients and comfort-inspired baked goods have been key drivers of this growth. “Customers want something delicious that doesn’t leave a large leftover,” Ackles said, pointing to popular items like squares, brownies, cookies, and breakfast twists.

Diane Cleven, vice president of deli/CMS/sushi/bakery at The Fresh Market, anticipates continued success for bakery items in 2024. She explained that the store’s elevated bakery presentation and high-quality exclusive products attract a strong following. Smaller dessert options like cake slices and individual treats have been particularly popular as consumers opt for indulgent yet moderate portions.

Bakery staples like donuts and croissants have also seen significant rises in dollar sales. The Circana report noted a nearly 6% increase in perimeter cake sales since 2019, fueled by changes in consumer behavior during the pandemic. “Post-pandemic, shoppers are opting for smaller, beautifully decorated cakes for more frequent, intimate gatherings,” Parker explained.

Jewel Hunt, group vice president of fresh merchandising at Albertsons Companies, observed steady growth in fresh bread sales, particularly French, sourdough, and signature artisan varieties like garlic and rosemary olive oil breads. She emphasized that freshness remains a top priority for consumers, with many rounding out their meals with freshly baked bread or dessert options.

Impulse sales play a key role in bakery success. According to the latest Circana Omnibus Survey, 30% of shoppers make impulse buys to treat themselves, while 29% purchase to reward others. Parker noted that creative flavors and eye-catching bakery items can deepen baskets through impulse buys. “Shoppers want to see enticing, high-quality baked goods,” she said.

Social media and seasonal promotions can further boost impulse purchases. Ackles suggested using platforms to share new flavor combinations and highlight seasonal items. “Highlighting fresh and unique options, like rustic, artisanal, and healthier breads, can entice consumers,” he added.

Effective marketing also plays a critical role in bakery sales. Dave’s Fresh Marketplace embraces the philosophy of “Taste it, enjoy it, don’t regret it,” emphasizing high-quality ingredients and fresh-baked goods. Albertsons Companies leverages digital and social media to showcase the bakery’s freshness, selection, and quality.

Looking ahead, IDDBA expects another strong year for bakery sales as grocers continue to offer indulgent items and diverse bread varieties that cater to evolving consumer preferences. The bakery department is expected to remain a key driver of sales, offering comfort, indulgence, and convenience to shoppers.