Mother Nature’s Influence on Produce Sales Grows

The produce industry has been deeply affected by extreme weather events in 2023, as hurricanes, rising temperatures, and other climatic conditions have led to reduced supply, higher prices, and disrupted farming. The repercussions of these events are especially felt in produce categories like mangoes, berries, kiwis, and grapes.

Chris Mentzer, director of operations at Rastelli Market Fresh in New Jersey, explained that organic produce has been particularly affected, with sales slowing due to increased costs, while local produce has seen a 15% sales increase. Consumers have gravitated toward supporting local farms, and many have prioritized these options over mainstream products.

The upcoming months will see higher prices and potential shortages in several popular produce items. For example, a shortage of mangoes from Ecuador and Peru is expected, with production forecasts showing a significant reduction. The weather has affected flowering, leading to a projected 50% decrease in mango exports from these countries. The situation is further complicated by rising freight, labor, and energy costs. Albert Perez, CEO of Continental Fresh, noted that the impact of El Niño on mango production is unprecedented, warning of both higher prices and limited availability.

While the berry category is not as severely impacted, the strawberry harvest in California has been slowed by cooler temperatures in the Santa Maria region, where 90% of U.S. strawberries are grown. In contrast, raspberries, blackberries, and blueberries are seeing steady supply and strong sales, with consumer interest in specialty varieties driven by social media trends. Jim Roberts of Naturipe Farms noted that larger, more colorful berries are in high demand, driven by viral trends online.

Other fruits like kiwi are also facing challenges, with heavy rains in Italy and high temperatures in Greece expected to reduce supply by 30%. Grapes, particularly from California, have been impacted by Hurricane Hilary, which damaged vineyards. However, grapes from Peru and Chile may help fill the gap in 2024.

Retailers are adapting to these shifts in supply and consumer behavior. According to Circana, consumer price sensitivity has increased in response to inflation and the changing landscape of grocery shopping. Retailers are being advised to optimize promotions, focus on price competitiveness for staple produce, and improve in-store displays. Rastelli Market Fresh, for example, has introduced a “veggie butcher” station to attract more customers by offering free produce cutting and samples.

Retailers are also encouraged to create attractive produce displays, such as those that resemble a fruit stand, to increase impulse buys. Expanding display space for high-demand items like berries can also help drive sales. With the winter holidays approaching, fresh produce displays can be tailored to seasonal trends, further boosting sales during this key shopping period.