Why Home Baking Remains Popular

Despite a decline in home baking since its peak during the COVID-19 pandemic, the activity continues to present a significant opportunity for supermarkets to merchandise baking ingredients. A 2023 survey by research firm Mintel revealed that 47% of U.S. adults bake regularly, with 28% opting for scratch baking and 19% using prepared mixes.

Although fewer people are baking from scratch, the group that does remains highly engaged, investing in quality ingredients and taking pride in their craft. “Consumers who bake from scratch may be fewer, but they continue to appreciate the value of quality ingredients,” the Mintel report stated. Social media influencers and content creators have also helped sustain interest in home baking, especially among younger consumers. Retailers can target this group by offering a variety of products along with educational resources.

As time-saving becomes a priority for home bakers, retailers can meet this demand by focusing on convenience. Mintel suggests that supermarkets offer baking mixes that include all or most ingredients, along with specialty options like gluten-free or organic products.

Simplified Baking Solutions

Lesley Wooding, a buyer at Barons Market in Poway, California, shared that many home bakers are now looking for “fun and easy” solutions that require minimal added ingredients. “People still want to bake, but now that they’re back to their regular routines, they prefer simplified versions of their favorite baked goods,” Wooding said.

Sales Surge in Baking Mixes and Staples

Recent data from research firm NIQ shows that baking mixes have seen a 2.7% rise in dollar sales, reaching just over $3 billion. However, unit sales have slightly declined by 0.3%. The performance of various baking mixes varies widely, with biscuit mixes up 7.5% in dollar sales and gingerbread mix down by 13.1%.

Baking staples, on the other hand, have outperformed mixes. Overall sales of baking staples rose by 6.1% to nearly $6.5 billion, with notable increases in products like flour, baking chips, and pie filling. According to Mintel, there’s also growing consumer interest in high-protein mixes, with 28% of consumers indicating that such products would encourage them to try new baking mixes. Additionally, alternative flours like oat and almond flour are gaining traction, with 23% of consumers expressing interest in these options.

Wooding noted that consumers, much like those shopping in other areas of the store, are gravitating toward cleaner, simpler ingredient lists. Barons Market has responded by offering organic, gluten-free, and specialty baking mixes from brands like Miss Jones Baking Co., as well as gluten-free flours made from chickpeas or cassava.

Social Media as a Baking Inspiration Hub

Younger consumers, particularly those under 35, are increasingly turning to online influencers for baking inspiration, while older generations are more likely to rely on traditional sources like cookbooks and family recipes. Mintel reports that cooking and baking websites are among the top sources for baking inspiration across all age groups.

Wooding agreed that social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok are fueling trends in home baking, with influencers driving much of the consumer interest in new recipes and techniques. “Social media is definitely shaping what consumers are baking at home,” she said.

Merchandising Tips for Supermarkets

Christine Kirby, executive director of the Home Baking Association, believes that supermarkets have a valuable opportunity to capitalize on home baking’s popularity by providing helpful product information. For example, offering guidance on which types of flour work best for various recipes or displaying QR codes linked to baking instructions can make it easier for shoppers to choose the right ingredients.

Sharon Davis, a Baking STEAM instructor, also suggested that supermarkets could optimize sales by merchandising complementary items like dried fruits and oatmeal in the baking aisle, as these are frequently used in baking. “Dried buttermilk is another ingredient that many grocers overlook, but it’s essential for many baked goods,” she added.

Davis also recommended placing the baking aisle near the dairy and eggs section since these ingredients are crucial to many recipes. Supermarkets could also expand their offerings of specialty flours, like rye, spelt, and soy, to cater to consumers interested in multi-grain baking.

With a focus on time-saving, convenience, and variety, home baking remains a popular activity. By understanding consumer preferences and offering the right products, supermarkets can continue to capitalize on this enduring trend.